Ben-DutkaThere's a critical oversight in this prediction, in my opinion.
But first, the news- According to IDC research manager Lewis Ward, the next round of video game consoles won't manage to outstrip the current generation in terms of overall hardware sales.
"The next wave crest isn't as high as the previous one," Ward said, adding that consoles as a product category have "peaked." He estimates that a combined 250 million PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Wii units were sold between 2005 and 2012 and clearly, he doesn't see the PS4, Xbox 720 and Wii U topping that quarter-billion number. Well…duh. The problem with this analysis should be obvious, isn't it?
This past generation, the Wii started like gangbusters and sold like crazy . It currently sits at about 99 million units sold. The Wii U, which launched late last year, is at a paltry 3.5 million and the future is not looking bright for that machine, especially with the new consoles from Sony and Microsoft on the way. Ain't no way the Wii U hits a hundred million; hell, I'll be surprised if it hits 25 million at this rate.
So without that massive boon that was the Wii, of course the PS4 and Xbox 720 won't sell 100 – 120 million units between them. No, that probably won't happen. It doesn't necessarily mean the console business has "peaked;" it just means Nintendo had lightning in a bottle at the start of this generation and now…they kinda don't. The bottle's empty.